Did Donald Trump just kill the electric motorcycle? That’s not a rhetorical question. Or even, believe it or not, an inflammatory one. It’s a serious question for which — loyal readers prepare to be stunned — I profess no answer.

The reason I ask is that California’s electric vehicle mandate is well and truly on the rocks. Actually, it’d be fairer to say it’s almost surely going to be rescinded. I’ll try to keep the boring legalese as short as possible, but essentially, the breakdown is as follows:

California has long been granted the right to set its own emissions standard through its Air Resources Board (the famed — or notorious, depending on where you sit on the environmentalism fence — CARB) with permission from the Environmental Protection Agency. In the United States, the environment is a federal jurisdiction, but because the Golden State’s pollution was so bad in the 1960s it was granted a waiver to set its own emissions standards for automobiles and motorcycles. Two things are important about that: First, that 17 other states — representing about 40 per cent of American vehicles — have copied Cali’s emissions rules; and, secondly, that 13 of those have instituted its EV mandate.

Said EV mandate, as the news has often trumpeted, infuriates Donald Trump. This term, unlike his first, he’s actually managed to get Congress onboard, with both the Senate and the House of Representatives voting to rescind the EPA’s right to let California set its own state standards. 

As one might imagine, all manner of lawsuits is pending. But the Republicans — or, at least, their advisors — have been smarter than usual, and they used a little-known procedure called the Congressional Review Act to perform their devil’s work. The only reason I mention such boring machinations is that the CRA explicitly says that its decisions can’t be challenged in court, even by the Supremes. 

I’ve put way too much time into studying this and have concluded that save for one last Hail Mary — essentially a procedural definition of what a “rule” is — California’s EV mandate is done like dinner.

Why should that matter to we Canadians? 

Well firstly, you need to know that California is not only the leader in emissions regulation; it’s the spiritual home of EV mandates. Quebec’s original EV mandate was a virtual copy of California’s translated into French and kilometres per hour. As I also said, a whole bunch of American states copy its rules. In other words, if California’s mandate is rescinded, so are all the other states’ which means, economies of scale being what they are, manufacturers — both four-wheeled and two — are not going to produce battery-powered vehicles for Canada alone just to meet our EV quotas. 

Quebec has already accepted this reality, and announced, as I was writing this column, that it is slowing down its mandated transition to electrics. British Columbia, the only other province with a similar program, will probably do so as well and the only reason the federal government hasn’t pulled the plug on our national program is that Prime Minister Mark Carney is keeping the offer of eliminating it in his pocket as a bargaining chip for his tariff talks with Trump.

What’s the fallout from these sudden about-faces? 

Well, obviously fewer electric vehicles are going to get sold. Automakers are already putting many of their EV plans on hold or scaling them back. That said, the electric car will survive, albeit in significantly reduced numbers compared with some of the fantastical projections bandied about. But they will survive.

Electric motorcycles? They would, at least in North America, seem doomed. As I have noted before in this column, the number of full-sized battery-
powered motorcycles — say, 250-cc
equivalents and larger sell in incredibly low numbers. Zero Motorcycles, the world’s largest manufacturer of zero-emission bikes, probably sells less than 4,000 units per year globally — they refuse to actually divulge numbers, probably out of embarrassment.

Some of the few actual registration figures we have access to suggest that, of the million-plus motorcycles registered in bike-mad UK, fewer than 0.04 per cent are electric. And, as loudly as introductions of new electric superbikes are trumpeted by the media — can you say Damon? — their inevitable demise passes largely unnoticed. The graveyard of failed electric motorcycle manufacturers is full and methinks we’re going to need more space. 

So, what comes next? 

That’s where we go back to my first paragraph. I, who likes to at least pretend to have all the answers, don’t know. If automobile manufacturers are cutting back their EV plans and venture funds are refusing to fund battery start-ups for cars, there’s certainly going to be no money for electric bikes. 

Does the North American market just forge on with internal combustion? What about European motorcycle manufacturers? If the EU does keep its 2035 deadline for elimination of ICEs, will they keep putting money into combustion research so they can supply bikes to the U.S. market? Do American marques, Indian and Harley-Davidson, continue to try to meet foreign emissions standards more stringent than at home? 

And, if the industry must continue reducing motorcycling’s carbon footprint, what are the alternatives to battery-power? Hydrogen? Not nearly ready for prime time. Hybrids? So far, motorcycle manufacturers have not, save for Kawasaki (and they’re only just starting), seriously looked into combining electric motors with piston power. Synthetic fuels? They could work, but unless the car-side gets onboard, it’s doubtful refiners will bother supplying the motorcycle market. So, like I said, I don’t know. If you have any ideas, let me know.